posted by Philip Harman on Mar 20
INTRODUCTION
I remember that it was the mid of September 2008 when the clamorous news regarding the economic turbulence, emerging from US and encompassing the European countries, were capturing big space in the international media. Indian economists, government, leaders and even media were silent on the issue of apprehending the turmoilâ??s transition to Indian economy. They seemed not worried about the predicament prevailing abroad beyond Indian boundaries despite their being well aware of the economic contagium and the economic contagiousness among world economies especially in this globalization era. They were perhaps over confident on account of the rising inflation rate and the achieved appreciably high growth rate.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2008
As per the Economic Outlook issued in July 2008, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the Indian Prime Minister was of the view that the Indian economy would be able to grow by 7.7 % in 2008 â?? 09. At that time, the Council had opined that while a large part of the sub-prime losses had been accounted for, further setbacks were possible in the months to come and conditions were unlikely to stabilize before early 2009. The outcome in the first half of 2008 â?? 09 was broadly along the lines expected by the Council in July. Not only this, but Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was so confident up to the last week of Oct. 2008 that he did not even slightly hesitate to declare at Sivaganga (Tamilnadu) on Oct. 25 that India would not be hit by recession and it would sustain an 08 % (more than 7.7 % as estimated by the above said EAC in its economic outlook submitted in the month of July) growth rate this year despite the global financial crisis.
CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS
It took though no longer span of time than mere one month when Mr. Chidambaram accepted the emergence of a temporary slowdown in Indian economy. On 24 November 2008, while briefing the media after the meeting with CEOâ??s, he said that India must be prepared for a temporary slowdown in its economy because of the global financial meltdown. But, he again commented contrarily on Dec. 16 saying, â??India is nowhere near recessionâ?. However he added that Indian economy had been impacted by the global meltdown. Here in this comment Mr. Chidambaram accepted the global meltdown impacting the economy on one hand while, simultaneously, regarded the economy recession devoid on the other. It is worth noted here that Mr. Chdambaram made this statement while being in chair as Finance Minister and the statement came after a number of events like three block-closers observed by Tata Motors, three days week being observed by Ashok Leyland, rapidly falling inflation rate, falling banking rates, dismissal of 2.5 % workforce in Wipro, loss of 65000 jobs in 121 surveyed export oriented units etc. (making the slowdown amply clear) had already come about in Indian economy well before Dec. 16. Moreover, the effect of economic depression, starting from America, Europe and other countries of the world, had become clear in Indian economy, too, up to the month of October. Before the beginning of October a decreasing trend started in the export business, the industrial production index and the revenue of indirect taxes, especially the production tax (excise duty). The GDP also decreased during the second quarter as compared to that in the first quarter of the financial year 2008-09. The total export of the country, in the month of October 2008, remained 12.1 % less than that in October 2007. Industrial production index also observed a 0.4 % decrease in that month. The production tax (excise duty) revenue in October 2008 became 8.7 % less than that in October 2007 and the growth rate of FDP in the second quarter (July to September 2008) was 7.6 % as against 7.9 % in the first quarter. Having felt the incoming of depression, the Government and RBI started taking preventive measures. RBI took steps for bringing the interest rates down and the government provided relief to industries by lowering the rates of production tax. However, the industrial sector felt all the so far taken measures (including the last bailout of Rs 3000 billion on December 09, 2008, too) insufficient and therefore was demanding one more package.
On the other hand, Hindustan, Hindi Daily, Dec.15, 2008, states that contrary to the above Mr. P. Chidambaram, as the finance minister of India, in the meeting of World Economic Forum, refused to accept the presence of depression in Indian economy. I canâ??t understand why Mr. Chidambaram makes contradicting versions and accepts not the things ingenuously. All the same, I appreciate that by doing so he presents himself as a true Indian politician. Leaving aside the (whatever) disingenuous comments of Mr. Chidambaram, there are but enough grounds for us not only to believe but to prove that Indian economy stands now encompassed well by depression, though because of the global meltdown.
REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2008 â?? 09
Finally the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India submitted the second report on the â??Review of Indian Economy 2008 â?? 09 on Jan. 23. Executive Summery of the report accepts the impact of global economic and financial crisis in Indian economy when it reads as â??the direct impact of funding constraints on the investment plans of Indian corporates and hence on growth and job creation, together with the second order effects of this development, coupled with the compression in export markets and the second order effects on this count, are the two principal channels through which the impact of the global financial and economic crisis are being felt in Indiaâ??. The summery further reads as â??India and perhaps China, would have a difficult time in the first part of the year, but should be able to show a pickup in growth in the last quarter of 2009, if not earlierâ??. The Council, vide its said report, expects that in the financial year 2009 â?? 10, the Indian economy is likely to remain relatively weak in the first quarter (Aprilâ??June) and slowly pick up thereafter and the economy would show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half of the fiscal year (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) assuming some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. Overall, the Council assesses that growth in 2009 â?? 10 would be between 7.0 and 7.5 % or some what above that, with the first half of the year averaging growth close to 7.0 % and the second half an average growth of close to 7.5 % or higher. The summery reveals that it has been apprehended in the report that the merchandise trade deficit is likely to touch historic highs despite the decline in oil prices. But the Council expects that it is likely to be offset to a large extent by higher net invisible earnings.
As regards to the inflation rate, the report states that WPI inflation peaked at close to 13 per cent in August 2008. Consumer price inflation continued to rise to 11 per cent in October and November due to price increase in primary foodstuff. The Council expects that the WPI inflation rate for manufactured goods is likely to fall to 4 per cent in February and fall further by the end of March 2009 and this falling trend may continue for a few months into the next fiscal year due to the base effect, given that a large part of the price surge happened between March and June of 2008. However, inflation in primary foods is stated to likely remain elevated at near about 8 %. The report also expects that inflation in energy prices will be negative, as will be that in some non-food primary articles like iron ore. Overall the headline WPI inflation rate is likely to go down to near about 4 % by the end of February or the beginning of March, with a potential for more declines after that. CPI inflation will also fall, but the extent of the fall is unlikely to match that for WPI, considering the expected higher rate of food inflation and its larger weight in the consumer price indices.
All the same, the Council is of the view that the present crisis has come upon the Indian economy at a point of time where several of its components are in relatively strong shape. It opines that Indian enterprises have learnt the hard lessons of the importance of managing business and financial risks, and are thus to that extent in a better position to ride out the storm of this crisis. Indian banks have also gone through a transformational process. Whatever deterioration in asset quality the present crisis brings in its awake, Indian banks today are better prepared to deal with it than at any time in their history. On Jan. 23, 2009, in Singapore, Mr. Om Prakash Bhatt, Chairman, SBI, while speaking on â??60 years of Indian Republic and future challengesâ??, also presented the same opinion by saying that Indian banks are safe in the present time of world depression despite here the banks of the worldâ??s big economies are collapsing. He further added that the Indian banks are in a strong position on account of their managerial skill of world level which they had well achieved when doors for foreign banks were opened in Indian economy.
Going through the executive summery of the report, one can conclude that the Council though accepts that the economic crisis (named as Depression 2008) has encompassed Indian economy but it believes the situation to be temporary. Therefore the Council confidently speaks of the Indian economy likely and rather believably to show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) of the present fiscal year. The confidence of the Council is based on its belief regarding some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. I donâ??t agree with the optimistic stand of the Council. Nor I am aware of whether the reason of the Councilâ??s being so optimistic is a political strategy or an economic analysis. Moreover, contrary to the conclusion and the opinion of the Council mentioned in the said summery, some big organizations like World Bank, IMF and National Association of Business Economists (of America), have revealed in their separately carried on surveys that the prices of necessary commodities would go down by up to 23 % in 2009. First time in the last two and a half decades the world may face a decrease in the world growth rate and the trade pool. On the basis of a survey of 185 countries, the World Bank has estimated, in its report titled as World Economic Situation and Prospects that in the first half of 2009 unemployment would be the biggest problem before the world. In addition to this, ILO report entitled The Global Wage Report 2008-09 holds that difficult times lie ahead for the worldâ??s 1.5 billion wage earners. The report further states, â??Slow or negative economic growth, combined with highly volatile food and energy prices, will erode the real wages of many workers, particularly the low-wage and poorer households. The middle classes will also be seriously affectedâ?. The report warns that tensions are likely to intensify over wages. Based on the latest IMF growth figures, the ILO forecasts that the global growth in real wages will at best reach 1.1 per cent in 2009, compared to 1.7 per cent in 2008, but wages are expected to decline in a large number of countries, including major economies.
CONCLUSION
Indian economy canâ??t remain untouched by any economic turmoil in the rest of the world. The present economic slowdown in Indian economy also is an aftermath of the recession prevailing in almost all big economies of the world. Therefore, the conclusions made and inferences drawn by some big organizations like World Bank, IMF, National Association of Business Economists (of America) and ILO on the basis of extended survey and analysis of the world economies are not only applicable to Indian economy but they are believable, too, at least more than those drawn by national agencies like â??Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of Indiaâ?? from their own national level surveys. The above said big organizations have not given any indication towards their being expectant regarding start of economic upswing from the third quarter (Sept. to Dec.) of 2009 and onward. Hence the world economic scenario may rather worsen throughout the present fiscal year.
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